Category: News

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She is the author of the book “Coding Democracy: How Hackers Are Disrupting Power, Surveillance and Authoritarianism”

New York, October 3, 2024 – Maureen Webb explained, during her presentation at the VI Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, that there is an idea that the code is the law, “and that means that in a world of ubiquitous computing, the self-executing nature of the code will largely determine our relationships and rights and even our constitutional guarantees if we do not pay attention to it.”

“In other words, the power of the code to create norms, surpassing the power of the law, will determine the type of society in which we live and whether it will tend to be democratic. The code is designing the norms by which we live, but who controls the code? This for me is an urgent civic issue,” she said.

During her presentation, she explained that there is currently a struggle to build a coded world around us and that ordinary computers, users and citizens are at the mercy of code-makers. “And hackers are shamans in this space because they possess both the skills and the inclination to mediate between the code and us,” Webb said.

The specialist said that, although the hacker stereotype is believed to be a dangerous nihilistic element in society, they come from all political backgrounds. “They are found throughout the technological world, working for large security platforms, in their own startups, in medium-sized companies and in academia,” she explained.

“Hackers believe that one should be able to take apart digital systems and any other system, interrogate them, study and challenge them, improve them and share added improvements with others,” Webb stressed.

She stressed that they have made an immense contribution to the development of free software. In other words, “a code that can be studied, developed, reused and shared. And this free software is really the idea that the best code is created with production in a common space.”

Webb also explained that “hackers have been at the forefront of net neutrality, and perhaps net neutrality is the most important digital right or issue today.”

“What we have learned in the 21st century is that there is an undeniable, centralizing and totalizing dynamic of digital technology, and with the emergence of increasingly sophisticated AI, it will only get worse,” she reiterated.

She also explained that “AI is a field of computer intelligence that allows for knowledge, representation, reasoning, planning, perception and natural language processing.”

In her opinion, as the 21st century progresses, we will see “an increasing convergence between the State and big technologies. Code will cause norms to erode and as codes and norms are changed, there will be demands to change the way we think about democracy and constitutional rights.”

Speaker Maureen Webb

Maureen Webb is the author of “Coding Democracy: How Hackers Are Disrupting Power, Surveillance and Authoritarianism.” Published in 2020 by MIT Press, the book made Wired magazine’s must-read list that year and continues to attract international interest.

She has been invited to speak at Chatham House, Virtual Futures, the Oxford Literary Festival, London’s Front-Line Club, UBC’s Blockchain Centre, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the California Council on World Affairs, Gray Area in San Francisco, Theater Neumarkt in Switzerland, the Toronto International Authors Festival, and a podcast affiliated with the Tokyo Institute of Technology, among many others.

She is also the author of “Illusions of Security: Global Surveillance and Democracy in the Post 9-11 World,” published by City Lights. Her work has been praised by voices as diverse as Arnoldo Garcia, Craig Newmark, Randi Weingarten, Mark Danner, David Cole, Jeremy Waldron, and Cory Doctorow.

The experts who participated in the Panel discussion titled “Current Political and Social Issues in Latin America”, during the Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, referred to the current reality of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina, Mexico and El Salvador, among other countries in the region. The Forum opened on Thursday, October 3, at the Center for Economics and Development Policy of Columbia University’s The Kellogg Center.

NEW YORK. The democratic wave that Latin America experienced decades ago, with growth quotas and respect for human rights, is experiencing tangible setbacks and trends that show a decline in the political achievements that gave the region opportunities to invest in development processes that today appear adrift.

Participants in the panel “Current Political and Social Issues in Latin America,” were Denise Dresser, professor of the Political Science Department of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico; Jorge Liotti, head of the political section of newspaper La Nación; Gerardo Munck, professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California (USC), and Will Freeman, Fellow of Latin American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. The panel was moderated by Iván Rebolledo, managing partner of Terra Nova Strategic Partners and president of the Board of Directors of Global Americans. The panels and speeches of the Forum are available for viewing and downloading at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnjmEzywfnM

Denise Dresser: In Mexico, Democratic Institutions Have Been Subverted

In Mexico, things were not going well regarding the country’s democracy, and that we were unable to correct before the former president, José Manuel López Obrador, was the result of that dysfunctional democracy, expressed the political scientist.

Even in Adam Przeworski’s definition of what a democracy is, parties that lose elections or a method to process conflicts, Mexico has ceased to have those characteristics. In Professor Dresser’s opinion, “because of the judicial reform, the militarization process, with what is happening within the National Electoral Institute and the erosion of a checks-and-balances system, and the hold of the judicial power,” the country has dismantled the minimum conditions necessary to remain a democracy.

If López Obrador or Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s new president – who came to power with the support of her predecessor and the Morena party – were here, they would confirm that democracy means the will of the people, with the nearly 36 million votes she received, argues Dresser. She warned that today “the fourth transformation is eliminating the conditions under which Mexicans could remove the Morena government if it acted badly.”

She reiterated her statements with the following: “We will no longer have the ability to remove those that are incompetent. Because in order to have a basic electoral competence, you need a minimum of institutional and legal arrangements, a minimum of basic economic and civil rights, a minimum of an independent judiciary and courts that ensure those rights. Victories must be temporary and defeats must be temporary. Today I would argue that Mexico has lost those minimum conditions.”

What we have witnessed – she said – was the arrival of a man, and now a woman, through the democratic route and the electoral vote, but who have come to office and have subverted the country’s democratic institutions. She argued that this is the paradox of our times and that it is happening not only in Mexico. “It is happening in many parts of Latin America and around the world. So, I would end by saying that Mexico, sadly, has a long history of placing its destiny in the hands of omnipotent rulers, while it staggers from crisis to crisis,” she emphasized.

In conclusion, she argued that López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum are taking the country down a very familiar path. “And for those of us with historical memory, we know where it leads. Not to a strong, healthy, vibrant democracy as we understand it, which includes checks-and-balances, separation of powers, transparency and accountability, as well as citizen empowerment and basic rights, but rather to an authoritarian, discretionary, lawless form of government, backed by people who should know better.” Jorge Liotti: Javier Milei achieved the presidency at a time of great stress for Argentine democracy.

Jorge Liotti: Javier Milei Became President at a Time When the Argentinian Democracy was Undergoing a Period of Great Stress

Referring to the reality that Argentina is experiencing, with its president Javier Milei, Liotti referred to several contrasting trends: three years ago, he was a panelist, an economist who went through the television channels proposing theories that seemed extremely bold, inapplicable, and that seemed more like the many characters that circulate through streaming and on television. At the end, he became the president of a relevant southern cone nation of the Americas.

He believes that the electoral process that brought Milei to power for the first time clearly exposed a majority perception that there is a structural crisis in Argentina. This means that there was no desire to vote between candidates who were options A or B, and the ordinary classics found in the traditional parties.

He recalled that every two years the Argentine voters had been changing the direction of their vote in a desperate search to find answers to a context that, obviously, in the Latin American framework we see that it was not so out of tune because in the Argentine case it was even more serious.

Argentina has not grown economically, indicating that the last year growth was experienced was in 2011. This means that the country has gone through 13 years of stagnation or economic growth. “And I would state that this perception of structural crisis has three phases, which somehow ended up converging in that important turning point that was 2023.

In his economic analysis he highlighted, among other issues, the impossibility of finding a new economic development matrix for Argentina – which has indicators in terms of GDP per capita – that are similar to the mid-70s, when the import substitution model was exhausted and Argentina, then, failed to find a path of sustainable growth over time.

Regarding some instances of economic improvement in the early 90s and the beginning of the new century, he pointed out that they never constituted a new matrix for economic growth. He also explained the change in its social composition after the crisis of 2001 – 2002, when the economic convertibility system that linked the parity of the dollar with that of the Argentine peso ended.

A system – he said – that was beneficial at the beginning but, in the long run, began to have very high costs in terms of recession processes and unemployment, ending with a social explosion: looting in the streets and the end of the convertibility system. A profound transformation occurred with these events. At the time, the ceiling level for poverty became the floor of poverty, whereby Argentina changed its appearance, going from being a vigorous middle-class nation for most of the 20^th century to a nation defined by lower class and lower middle-class sectors.

Liotti pointed out that this was compounded by the political paralysis of the last 15 years, with a polarization between what Peronism represented in its center-left Kirchner version, and what Macrism represented in its center-right version. “Something similar to what the United States began to experience in the post-Trump years, but that in Argentina experienced as a system that became paralyzed because the governments did not have a majority in Congress and that somehow caused the governments to end up mutilating part of their programs, making it impossible for them to progress.”

In his opinion, it was this triple convergence crisis, involving the economic, social, and political sectors that ended up generating a vacuum of possible candidates that Milei ended up filling. This is when the Argentine citizen, “in a moment of great stress for democracy,” ended up exiting through a slope that was not situated in the center of the ideological spectrum but rather in the extreme edges of that path.

“During the first six months of his Administration, Milei bet on what I called the shock of exceptionality, based on the idea that he is an exceptional, different and disruptive character, and that this deep crisis somehow gave him arguments to be able to demand exceptional responses from the political system,” he affirmed. And added: “Thus, for example, he sent what was called at the time an “Omnibus Law,” and its 664 articles to reform the State.

Gerardo Munck:

It is necessary to talk about the erosion of democracy in the region, without losing sight of the positive aspects

In order to evaluate the state of democracy in Latin America, the USC professor preferred to recall, first, the positive wave of transition towards democracy that took place during the eighties and nineties. In addition, he stressed that by the year 2000, the entire region had become democratic, with the exception of Cuba, something that had never happened before in the region’s history.

“If we look at what has happened from 2000 to the present, there have been a whole series of crisis. Some democracies collapsed, followed by the return of democratic governments,” he indicated. He also underlined the two “clear exceptions to these democratic trends:” Venezuela and Nicaragua. Currently – he added – there is a discussion about El Salvador and Mexico.

Elections are the undisputed means of accessing power in democracies, he stated, and highlighted that there is something to be said about many countries that have developed a wealth of democratic practices, sometimes in three or four decades in some cases, but he pointed out that this “was certainly not the case in the 20th century”, which he considers “something new”, with the admission that there are many problems related to democracy.

Currently – he stated as one of his conclusions – “there is a discussion about democratic erosion, a regression process, which I think addresses a very important trend. It is very important to have these discussions.”

Will Freeman: The Rise of Organized Crime in the Region is at the Root of the Democratic Crisis

In his presentation, Freeman expressed his total agreement with what Munck had stated regarding what has happened in the region in the last 10 years, a period in which it entered a new cycle, a new period, after the end of the commodities boom.

For this Latin American studies researcher, one of the main reasons why I believe this has happened is the growth of illegal markets, organized crime and, “if you will, the reorganization of organized crime throughout the region.”

More openly, he stated that “today, organized crime is at the top of the public agenda almost everywhere you look.” Therefore, he considered that it is not a mystery why President Nayib Bukele, in El Salvador, is probably the most talked about leader in the region, when viewed internationally, for having imprisoned almost 2% of the adult male population of his country.

The chaos in Ecuador, which has descended into gang violence and has become a new cocaine export hub, has also been one of the biggest news stories of recent years. Freeman warned. He also added that in the case of Mexico, “of which we heard earlier, has just concluded its most violent elections in recent history, with more than two dozen candidates killed, not to mention the hundreds who resigned from their candidacies under threat from organized crime.”

He also added to the list the case of Brazil, which is holding its local elections on October 6. He pointed out that in the race to govern the largest city in Latin America, and the largest city in the entire Southern Hemisphere, São Paulo, there is a contender, and a very strong one at that: Pablo Marçal, a far-right fitness trainer and influencer, who is a small-party candidate, Pehe de Be, whose president was caught on tape boasting about his ties to the country’s main drug cartel, Pese Se. Although he denied it, **Folha de São Paulo** has verified it with several sources.

Under these circumstances, it is worth asking, “What has changed?” Why does it seem that organized crime is suddenly at the top of the political agenda everywhere? And what political models are taking shape in the region to respond to both this real problem and the widespread public concern that is now evident, with 67% of Mexicans considering crime to be the country’s main problem, 60% of Brazilians saying the same, and the numbers being equally high in countries like Chile, Peru and many others?

On this crucial issue, said Freeman, he is writing a book called *Reorganized Crime*. He said that to understand why the region seems to be in the midst of a boom in organized crime, specifically during the last 10 years, one must ask why the mafias in the region can operate and grow with apparently very little restrictions, when in reality we are talking about a part of the world that has demonstrated remarkable success in recent times, within living memory, in stopping many other threats to stability and democracy? “Among those threats, which I would argue have been largely curbed and put into the memory box of history, are military coups, hyperinflation in most countries (perhaps not in Argentina, perhaps not in Venezuela, but in most), insurgencies, which until a few decades ago were still so common, and the paramilitaries,” he said, noting that mafias have now expanded in the absence of these other threats that were once existential.

Participants

Denise Dresser earned a B.A. in International Relations from the Colegio de México and a PhD in Political Science from Princeton University. She has been a visiting researcher at the Mexico-United States Center at the University of California, San Diego; at the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California; at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington D.C.; and a visiting professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and Georgetown University. She is a columnist for Proceso magazine and an editorialist for Reforma newspaper. She also participates in Carmen Aristegui’s Mesa Política and in La Hora de Opinar.

Author of the chapter “The Complex Relationship Between the News Media and the Political System in Argentina: From co-Optation to Polarization”, included in the book “Globalization, Media Policies & Cultural Markets in Latin America,” Palgrave, 2013. He co-authored the Model Curricula for Journalism Education, developed by UNESCO in 2007. Chapter
Journalistic Coverage and Writing: Journalism Specialized in Politics and Government.”

Gerardo Munck is a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California (USC). His most recent books include “Latin American Sociopolitical Thought: Social and Intellectual Sciences in Changing Times (with Martín Tanaka, 2023);” “Latin American Politics and Society: A Comparative and Historical Analysis (with Juan Pablo Luna; Cambridge, 2022);” “Critical Junctures and Historical Legacies: Perspectives and Methods for Comparative Social Science (edited with David Collier; Rowman and Littlefield, 2022);” and “A Medium-Quality Institutional Trap: Democracy and State Capacity in Latin America (with Sebastián Mazzuca, Cambridge, 2020).” His research focuses on democracy and democratization processes, Latin America, methodology, and the science of social sciences.

Will Freeman is a Latin American Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His work focuses on the rule of law, corruption, and organized crime in Latin America, as well as U.S.-Latin American relations. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, the New York Times, The Economist, the Journal of Democracy, the Washington Post, and Americas Quarterly, where he writes a monthly column. Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Freeman was a Fulbright-Hays Fellow in Colombia, Peru, and Guatemala, where he investigated efforts by the judiciaries to sanction cases involving large levels of corruption. During his graduate studies, Dr. Freeman also worked with the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He holds a PhD and an M.A. in politics from Princeton University, and a B.A. in political science from Tufts University.

The Forum

Organized by the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD), in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP), the forum has the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS) and the think-tank Global Americans (GA).

The Dominican-born Congressman participated in the VI Global Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, which opened this past Thursday, October 3, 2024, at the Center for Economics and Development Policy at Columbia University’s The Kellogg Center.

NEW YORK. Adriano Espaillat, the Senator for the 31st District of New York since 2011, highlighted at the opening ceremony of the VI Global Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, the initiatives in which he is currently working on in the U.S. Congress for the benefit of Dominicans. One of these initiatives is the Open Skies Agreement with the United States. Through this agreement, Dominican airlines would no longer have restrictions to fly to the U.S.

In remarks delivered at the Forum’s formal opening, the Congressman began his presentation by highlighting his decades-long friendship with former President Leonel Fernández, whose Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD), are organizing the Forum. The event will take place on Friday, October 4, at the Center for Development Economics and Policy at Columbia University’s The Kellogg Center.

Espaillat highlighted the contribution this kind of event brings forth, where experts reflect on solid analysis regarding the world situation, the reality of the region, and the opportunities that are present. At the same time, he stressed that Columbia University is located in the District he represents, a community that stands out in the country for being one of the most productive. It currently boasts the largest number of hospitals and beds in medical centers in the country.

Referring to the initiatives in which he participates for the benefit of Dominicans, he said that the Open Skies Agreement with the United States – which will allow Dominican airlines to fly to the U.S. – will have a great impact in reducing the price consumers have to pay for airline tickets

Currently, the signed agreement is in the Constitutional approval phase in order to enter into force. The agreement includes 17 articles and, among other rights, establishes that both the Dominican Republic and the United States may fly over each other’s territories without landing, make stops for non-commercial purposes and offer international air transportation between various points, which include the territory of each country.

Espaillat offered an example of its relevance by pointing out the high cost of airline tickets to travel to and from the Dominican Republic to the United States. Ticket prices average between US$600, US$800 and more dollars.

“Right now, a couple with two children would have to pay six, seven, or eight thousand dollars to travel,” said the congressman, which he described as an “abuse.” He indicated that this has a high impact on the Dominican diaspora.

During his remarks, he referred to the initiative that allowed the creation of the National Emergency and Security Attention System 911, in charge of coordinating emergency and security situations in the Dominican Republic.

He also mentioned another initiative that seeks to promote educational training so that the Dominican Republic may take advantage of the opportunities offered by technological advances, generating high-value products, such as semiconductors.

Another initiative that he highlighted is the one that has managed to improve the training provided to the members of the National Police.

He also expressed an interest in an initiative that would help Dominican teachers by introducing technology to the Dominican educational system.

The Forum

Organized by the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD), in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP), the forum has the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS) and the think-tank Global Americans (GA).

Fernández, who has served as president of the Dominican Republic for three terms, opened the Forum, which brings together specialists from the international community to analyze the reality of the region, and its opportunities and challenges.

The former president of the Dominican Republic warned of the current geopolitical situation and regional conflicts in his opening remarks during the VI Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2024. The Forum will officially open today Friday, October 4, at the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP), Columbia University, in New York City.

New York – The former president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernández, warned this Thursday, October 3, 2024, of the risks the world faces, amid the geopolitical tensions and conflicts that are taking place in different regions of the planet, despite the fact that the United States economy, a reference for financial markets, has recently sent notes of optimism with the reductions in interest rates.

In his opening remarks at the Forum, Fernández spoke as the president and founder of the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD). Both organizations organized the Forum in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy. The Forum has the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS) and Global Americans (GA), a recognized U.S. think-tank.

He recalled that just a couple of weeks ago, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 points, considering that inflation is within the 3% target. The measure sent a positive signal throughout that the U.S. economy is overcoming fears that it would not be able to have a soft landing after the turbulence experienced during and after the Covid pandemic. “Markets have responded positively to this decision by the highest monetary authorities in the U.S., and expect further cuts before the end of the year,” he said.

However, he stated that “as we meet today, the world is at risk.” He also referred to the geopolitical tensions and conflicts that are taking place in different regions of our planet. The former president highlighted that the oldest and most persistent conflict is the one that is currently taking place in the Middle East. He recalled that almost exactly a year ago, on October 7, a terrorist attack in Israel, led by the militant group Hamas, killing 1,200 people, has sparked a bloody war in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people have been killed, mostly civilians, and more than 2 million have been forced to leave their homes.

More recently, he said, the military conflict has moved to southern Lebanon, where the top leadership of Hezbollah has been practically eliminated, including its main leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel now has troops on the ground, giving way to a response from Iran, which has launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory in recent days. He also noted that Pope Francis has called for an immediate ceasefire, as has U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, while the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, while supporting Israel, is changing its stance in favor of diplomatic negotiations.

For Fernandez, the main concern is that this conflict could lead to a much broader regional military confrontation. He explained that nearly three years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and with autumn approaching, Ukraine says its forces in the eastern Donetsk region are facing more frequent battles than in months past, adding that “after a surprising assault by Ukrainian troops on Russian soil, it now appears that with more than 200 clashes a day, Russia is racing to break Ukrainian strongholds.”

In his overall review of the geopolitical situation, he also recalled that some 10 days ago the nations of the world met in New York during a Summit at the United Nations to adopt the “Pact of the Future,” where its Secretary-General, António Guterres, called it an effort to “recover multilateralism from the abyss.” To this he added: “The United Nations Development Program has called 2024 a “super year for elections.” The Economist dubbed it “the biggest election year in history,” while Time magazine referred to it as the “ultimate election year.”

Said Fernández: “The fact is that in 2024 more voters than ever before in history will go to the polls in more than 70 countries, representing 4.1 billion citizens, or half of the world’s population. This represents a very relevant test for democracy as a system. Does the fact that we have more voters than ever exercising their right to vote mean that we have more democracy? Not necessarily. That doesn’t seem to be the case, and there are clear examples of electoral processes that are far from transparent or fair,” said the former president and prominent political analyst.

He referred to the U.S. presidential elections, indicating that everyone is aware that they will take place in five weeks, on November 5. In this regard, he stated that although it seems that Kamala Harris will have no problem winning the popular vote, the narrow margins in six key states will keep everyone on alert until the last electoral college is secured. If it favors Donald Trump, it would be the second time that he has won the presidency without the majority of votes, he explained.

In any case – said Fernández – these American elections have been full of surprises and twists and turns, worthy of competing with well-known suspense thrillers such as those written by Tom Clancy, Ian Flemming or Agatha Christie. From the multiple legal proceedings that Donald Trump faced, the two assassination attempts on the former president, to the catastrophic first presidential debate, it was more than impossible that the incumbent president, Joe Biden, could possibly recover from such an unprecedented situation, he pointed out.

As the world watches these developments, the question arises as to how the interconnectedness of geopolitical conflicts will influence electoral decisions and economic stability. Fernández concluded that the uncertainty provoked by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, coupled with fears of a broader crisis, may mobilize voters everywhere, prompting them to demand stronger and more responsible leadership.

These were some of the conclusions reached during the first Panel held during the VI Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, where specialists on specific issues addressed the current situation of the economy and politics of the region.

NEW YORK. Meeting with the objective of analyzing the “Global and Regional Economy and Politics,” experts agreed during this first Panel of the Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, that the priorities of the region include resuming economic growth, assuming the impact of climate change in its public policies and expanding “fiscal space.”

These issues were addressed by José Antonio Ocampo, co-Director of the Economic and Political Concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; Daniel Titelman, Director of the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and Jorge Heine, professor at Boston University. The panel moderator was Mario Báez, economist and former United Nations official.

Ocampo opened the discussion by addressing the issue in the global and economic context, going from the positive to the negative. On the positive side, he said that the first issue that must be highlighted is the drop in the levels of inflation worldwide, following the invasion of Russia into Ukraine, a situation which generated a dramatic increase in the prices of energy and food products exported by these countries.

‘‘This invasion also generated a general increase in the interest rates of the central banks. We are currently in the downward phase. Clearly, this first reduction cycle made by the Federal Reserve of 50 basic points. In addition to this unusual decision by the Federal Reserve, the second phase was made by the European Central Bank.  In Latin America, I must say that we have been attempting to reduce interest rates for several months now,’’ he explained.

In this sense, he said that Latin America is one of the first regions that increased its interest rates. However, it is also one of the first that has begun to lower them. “This fact should somewhat normalize the flow of private capital to Latin America,” he added.

However, he warned of the need to achieve fiscal reforms that allow for the adoption of public policies that provide the population with more quality education and greater development.

He advocated for the creation of production chains in the region, taking into account their resources. We must analyze, country by country, what can be produced in order to increase income and achieve productive developments with the specific opportunities that each nation has, whether in the area of ​​health, food or products, such as electric cars. He also highlighted the lack of investment in research done in the region, with all that this implies.

Meanwhile, Jorge Heine referred to what he called the “poly-crisis”, a situation where massive human confrontations take place. This indicates that in the world, the development of human thought, with all the technological advances and scientific development “that we have had, we cannot somehow confront them.” The “poly-crisis,” he indicated, covers the geopolitical plane, impacts the economic sector, which in turn impacts the environment, and it seems we cannot get out of this.

What is happening? Why is the world going through this, he asked, sharing a reflection by Antonio Gramsci, the prominent Italian philosopher who said: “A crisis is when the world experiences something that has not yet been born, and yet is already ending, a world that is ending and another that has not yet begun.” That is what we are seeing in the international system of our times, Heine emphasized.

He added that we now live under a system that existed from the end of World War II until about 10 years ago, and that today has collapsed. The United States cannot control what Israel does, there is a difference in size, power, everything. The president of the United States announces that a ceasefire is coming and nothing happens. The opposite happens, and it is because the rules that existed in the previous system are no longer in force, and this is what Gramsci calls the interregnum, where many bad things happen. Part of this interregnum – he insisted – is due to the fact that we are moving through a world dominated by the Western powers: the United States, the United Kingdom, and the nations of the North Atlantic.

For the professor, it is not a coincidence that of the 10 cities in the world with the most billionaires, six are in Asia and only two in the United States, one in Europe and another in Moscow. He understands that this is happening because “the action is happening elsewhere today.”

He recalled that he was ambassador to China and India. “I know that world well and that is where things are happening and if we do not understand that, we will not really understand what is happening.”

We are pressured by either Washington or Beijing to do certain things. And, if we don’t do them, they trample us – as we say in Chile. Projects are cancelled, large infrastructure projects, bridges, cables designed to cross the Pacific are suspended. Why? Because one or the other of the great powers doesn’t like it, and in this situation other countries have to realize that they have to choose a different path.

He considered that Latin America is basically moving from the periphery to marginality. And he highlighted that this year the only region in the world that is going to grow less than Latin America is Europe. “This tells us where the world is going. It is going towards the powers that are emerging, and in that framework we, with my colleague, Carlos Fortín, have published a book: “Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option (Anthem Press, 2023)”, regarding this issue. We have called for a different position on foreign policy, he said.

Continuing with the panel, Daniel Titelman began his presentation by taking up the message that Ocampo raised regarding the growth challenge in the region. “Professor Ocampo told us that we are going through another lost decade. That is correct. And, there is a great challenge in the region because the drop in regional growth is already a structural issue. And, when one looks and compares from the air, after the decade of the eighties of the last century, after the debt crisis, what we see is a constant fall in the average growth rate and in the growth train of the region,” he said.

So -he argued- we face a great challenge on how we are going to reactivate growth in the region, which is not a minor issue. With an estimated growth so far, for this year, of only 1.8%, of approximately 2.3% for 2025, it is evident, he said, that the trend of low growth continues.

Regarding climate change, he said that in the organization to which he belongs they have been making calculations in relation to the challenge that this represents for the region “and we have seen that if the region does not make the investments in mitigation and adaptation that it has to make.” It will have a very negative impact not only on the planetary level, but also on the dynamics of growth, and our simulations suggest that if the region does not make the investments it requires, by 2050 the level of product in the region would be between 1%2 and 14% below what it would be if one maintains the current train, which we already said is mediocre.

Climate change is negatively affecting the region’s ability to grow through its negative impact on productivity. He warned that the calculations they have made already indicate a relationship between the fall in the GDP growth rate and the negative effects of climate change. They have estimated, he said as an example, that by 2050, “we would lose about 43 million jobs due to climate shocks in the region, which is equivalent to almost 10% of the workforce.”

So, said Professor Heine, facing the challenge of growth, we must take charge of climate change, “which at the same time is an opportunity to boost growth. He regretted that the traditional social problems of inequality that the region has are being joined by a great challenge for growth and also for equality, which is the challenge of climate change. He also mentioned that Latin America is the region that invests the least in the world in this sector.

In numbers, investment is around 19.5% and 20% of the GDP, while investment in emerging and developing countries in Asia, these investment numbers have risen to 33%. In emerging Asian nations, these percentages are approximately 40%. And we are still below developed countries. Therefore, the investment challenge, where the region has to boost growth and face climate change, is very difficult in a region that invests little and has strong macroeconomic restrictions.

On a more positive note, he agreed with Ocampo on the reduction in inflation in the region, with lower interest rates, which reduce financial costs. There is much progress to be made to maintain the low interest rates, as inflation is declining, he said.

The Forum

The event is organized by the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD), in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP). The forum has the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS) and the think tank Global Americans (GA).

Regarding the speakers:

José Antonio Ocampo, co-Director of the Economic and Political Development Concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs, member of the Committee on Global Thought and the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia University. He is also a member and past chair of the Committee on Development Policy, a committee of experts of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), and was chair of the Independent Commission on the Reform of International Corporate Taxation (ICRICT) from 2015-2022. He is still a member of the Commission.

Daniel Titelman is currently Chief of the Development Studies Section (United Nations-ECLAC). Previously, he was the Coordinator of the Special Studies Unit of the Executive Secretariat of ECLAC. He is an expert on issues related to Monetary and Financial Policies. Mr. Titelman has extensive and substantive experience in macroeconomic and financial issues, and has published numerous studies on these topics. He is currently the focal point for the topic of financing for development at ECLAC. He also coordinates the ECLAC/GTZ Programme entitled: “Towards Sustainable and Equitable Development”, component 4(b): Social Policy and Access to Financial Services Aimed at Combating Poverty (financing).

Jorge Heine is a research professor at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies and Interim Director of the Pardee Center for the Study of the Long-Term Future, Boston University. Former Chilean Ambassador to China, India and South Africa, he has also been a cabinet minister in the Chilean government. Former Vice President of the International Political Science Association (IPSA), he has been a visiting professor at the universities of Konstanz, Oxford, Paris and Tsinghua, and has published 17 books. His latest books are: “Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option (Anthem Press, 2023), and Xi-Na in the Century of the Dragon: What Everyone Should Know About China (lom, 2022).

The forum will take place Thursday, October 3, at the Center for Development Economics and Policy of Columbia University (The Kellogg Center), with the participation of experts from the fields of geopolitics and economics.

NEW YORK – The Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD), in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP), will celebrate the VI Global Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2024 in New York City, on Thursday, October 3, 2024.

This prestigious event will take place at CDEP’s Kellogg Center and is supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS), and the think-tank Global Americans (GA).

It will be held in a hybrid format, allowing for both in-person and online participation. The main objective of this conference is to create a space for debate and offer a plural platform for the exchange of ideas, focusing on the changing role of Latin America and the Caribbean in the current global scenario. Special attention will be paid to recent and ongoing electoral developments in Latin America, the United States and globally.

About the Forum

The main objective of this initiative is to promote a space for debate and offer a pluralistic platform for the exchange of ideas, discussion and analysis of the current role of Latin America and the Caribbean on the world stage, as well as its implications and challenges at a time of great uncertainty due to the global geopolitical and economic crisis.

Another topic that will be addressed is the accelerated advance of technologies linked to artificial intelligence, which are unquestionably leaving their mark both on the world and in our region, especially in democracies and electoral processes. Its regulation, in a responsible and transparent manner for the economic, political and social well-being of the region will also be analyzed.

Program

The one-day event will consist of four panels, where experts will present their ideas, observations and conclusions on the following topics:

Panel 1: Global and regional economy and politics
Panel 2: Current political and social developments in Latin America
Panel 3: Latin America and the US Elections: the role of the Latino vote, the economic and foreign policy repercussions
Panel 4: The impact of artificial intelligence on democracy, governance and elections

Participants

As has been the case since the first Forum was held in 2018, this initiative will once again bring together representatives from the main think-tanks dedicated to the study of the dynamics of the region, as well as academics and personalities from the political, economic and social spheres of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Forum will begin at 9:30 a.m. on October 3. The opening keynote remarks on the global political and economic situation will be delivered by internationally renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development, Columbia University.

José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CELAC) and José Antonio Ocampo, Co-Director of the Economic and Political Concentration, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, will be among the featured speakers. Also, Alicia Bárcenas, Foreign Minister of Mexico and next Secretary of the Environment of Mexico; Daniel Titelman, Director of the Economic Development Division (ECLAC); Eduardo Gamarra, from the Department of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University, and Mark Hugo López, director of research on race and ethnicity, Pew Research Center.

Noah Giansiracusa, Data Coordinator at Bentley University, and Mekela Panditharatne, an attorney at the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program at New York University, will be presenting their views on artificial intelligence and the challenges its use poses.